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Unit 9 Discussion
What Is Your Prediction?
A time series model is a forecasting technique that attempts to predict the future values of a variable by using only historical data on that variable. There are many variables you can use, as long as you have values that are recorded at successive intervals of time. Here are some examples of variables you can use to forecast.
Currency price: XE Currency Converter
Gross national product: Trading Economics
Average home sales: National Association of Realtors
College tuition: National Center for Education Statistics
Weather temperature or precipitation: Weather.gov
Stock price: Yahoo Finance
Select a dataset with a variable you would like to forecast. You may use a different source other than the ones listed above (be sure to reference the website).
State the variable you are forecasting.
Select at least eight consecutive data values.
Using the Time Series Forecasting templates, determine the following for the selected variable:
moving average (Moving Averages Worksheet),
weighted moving average (Weighted Moving Averages Worksheet), and
exponential smoothing (Exponential Forecasting Workbook), (see the video in the Unit 9 LiveBinder for additional information). Copy/paste the results of each method into your post. Be sure to state:
the number of periods used in the moving average method,
the weights used in the weighted moving average, and
the value of α used in exponential smoothing.
Clearly indicate the “next period” prediction for each method.
Choose one of the following:
Write a sentence that identifies the prediction.
Circle, draw, etc. on the chart to indicate which value is the prediction for the next time period.
See guidance to forecast time series data using a moving average, a weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing. You can also view a Discussion Board starter video to assist you with the Unit 9 Discussion in the Unit 9 LiveBinder.